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ΘΕΜΑ: Despite the Broncos record

Despite the Broncos record 2 Εβδομάδες 1 Ημέρα πριν #241

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Despite the Broncos record Womens Justin Simmons Jersey , and the optics at a glance, the Denver offense has shown improvement this year. There is an explosive component to this offense that hasn’t been there in years past.Denver has also finally found a consistent running game. After three years of hearing “we want to establish the run” or “we want to lean on the running game” from the various coaching staffs, the fans are actually seeing the product on the field.The Broncos rank 3rd in the league in total rushing yards, and 1st in the league in yards per attempt.However, it’s the passing game that while it produces some explosive plays, just cannot get things done when it counts.“3rd down and red zone”I probably bring up this quote at least once a month during the NFL season, because I love it so much. David Shaw, head coach at Stanford is one of my favorite coaches and he described quarterback play in the NFL as 3rd down and red zone. That’s what sets the greats apart from the “stat stuffers” or “fantasy quarterbacks”. Sure it’s fun to rack up yards between the 20s on 1st and 2nd down, but where quarterbacks make their money is in those critical spots for their team.3rd DownSo how has Denver’s passing offense fared on 3rd downs? First of all, it’s critical to understand the importance of a passing offense in this spot and why the quarterback must be effective on 3rd downs. If you have a strong running game like Denver has, is there as big a need for the quarterback and passing offense to shoulder the load on 3rd down?In short, yes. In today’s NFL, 3rd down is essentially the quarterback’s down. Out of the 3,129 3rd down plays across the league so far this year, only 21% have been runs. That is because the league average for yards to gain on 3rd down is 7.1 yards (Denver is right at league average). Of the times teams have run the ball on 3rd downs, 50% of those runs have come when the offense had less than six yards to gain. So when offenses have less than six yards to gain, it’s about a 50/50 split whether they run or pass on 3rd downs. Thus Authentic Case Keenum Jersey , offenses are passing the ball 80% of the time on 3rd downs. So, if you want to convert and be efficient on offense, you’re quarterback has to at least show up on 3rd down.Unfortunately, this is precisely where Denver has failed in the passing game.Case Keenum currently ranks 31st in the league at converting on 3rd downs at a paltry 22.5%. Additionally, Denver ranks 7th in the league on sacks given up on 3rd down with 12. In a future post, I’ll be breaking down each of those sacks to look at who’s to blame - the offensive line, or the quarterback, so more to come on this.At first glance, when looking at raw stats like completion % or QB rating, Keenum’s performance doesn’t necessarily dip that much when it gets to 3rd down. Which is why it is important to look at more telling metrics like success rate and yards per attempt that take into account the context of the situation. For instance, when passing on 3rd down, Denver has averaged around 8 yards to gain for a first down. Compare that to Case Keenum’s average yards per attempt on 3rd downs, at 5.6, and it becomes clearer that while he may be completing passes, they are falling short of the needed yardage. In fact, Keenum’s Y/A on 3rd down drops nearly three yards per attempt from his first down Y/A. This leads to Denver being one of the worst teams in the league at not only converting on 3rd down, but on gap between yards needed versus yards actually gained.I broke this down in a handy chart.3rd Down DifferentialTmGamesPlaysYardsToGoYds GainedDifferentialRank1st%TmGamesPlaysYardsToGoYds GainedDifferentialRank1st%(here is a more mobile friendly chart)As you can see http://www.denverbroncosteamonline.com/brandon-marshall-jersey , Denver is 28th in the league at closing the gap between the needed yards on 3rd down, and actual yards gained. On average, Denver’s passing game is four yards short of their needed yardage on 3rd downs, with the league average being around two yards.This is why regardless of how effective your running game is, the quarterback and passing game is critical to the success of the offense as a whole - and Denver hasn’t just been not good in this area, they have been downright bad.Red ZoneThe second critical area for an offense is finishing when in scoring range. This is where things begin to really look ugly for Case Keenum.Keenum’s QB rating drops nearly 40 points when inside the red zone, and his completion percentage drops over 20%.This is even more of a startling drop off considering Case Keenum was a top five quarterback in the red zone last year. I mentioned this a little bit last week while on Orange and Blue 760. Case Keenum threw 15 touchdowns last year in the red zone with zero interceptions, and six of those went to Kyle Rudolph. Another deep dive I will be doing in the future is a look at Keenum this year in the red zone, so stay tuned, but not having a go-to guy down in the red zone has clearly been an issue for Keenum and Denver’s offense.When looking at the numbers like this, it is easy to see why Denver has struggled so much this year, and why fans are not happy with the quarterback play. This is just the start of a series of posts on this topic, but it begins to paint a picture of just how bad the passing offense has been in key situations. You just can’t win in the NFL with this kind of play. If the Denver Broncos want to improve their fortunes this year or next, this has to be where they start.Who will be the breakout players for the Denver Broncos in 2018? The Denver Broncos have an exciting young group of rookies and, frankly, any one of those guys could have a breakout season. There are also a couple of non-rookies that are likely more poised for that breakout year than a first-year player would be.During today’s roundtable discussion with the Mile High Report staff, we throw our list of candidates into the ring for consideration. Add your breakout candidates in the comments section below.Which player(s) do you think will break out this season Womens Phillip Lindsay Jersey , and which player(s) do you think might disappoint?Taylor: I’ll take DeMarcus Walker as my breakout candidate. With his weight back up & playing in his natural position, he’s poised to start providing that interior pass rush pressure our edge rushers need to be able to thrive. With Walker menacing the middle (even if it doesn’t result in impressive box stats), Von Miller and Bradley Chubb can eat greedy. My disappointment candidate is a bit relative: Jake Butt won’t have the breakout red-shirt rookie campaign we’d hoped. If he was going to, he should of come out and clearly surpassed Heuerman for the TE1 role. So I don’t think Butt will play a big role in 2018- but that doesn’t mean he won’t be a good TE for the Broncos in the future.Scotty: Royce Freeman and Courtland Sutton! Disappoint? Probably the Broncos third corner.Hart: I think Royce Freeman is going to have a tremendous impact as a rookie and believe Courtland Sutton will provide a significant boost to the team’s aerial assault. As far as players who will disappoint, I can’t pinpoint anyone in particular, but do have concerns about the cornerback depth behind Chris Harris Jr. and Bradley Roby.Sadaraine: The breakout season this year belongs to Justin Simmons. We saw a good season from him in 2017. 2018 is the year his name gets put on the map as one of the best safety talents in the NFL. The disappointment season is going to be Bradley Roby. Too many people hype up his average to above-average game and make it seem like he’s the future. Protip: He’s not. (Editor’s note: He is.)Adam: Breakouts are supposed to be a bit of a surprise, and so there are some guys that are a little too obvious for me to choose. However, Phillip Lindsay looks like a guy who could have a major impact on the team in multiple ways. He will get some run with the offense in passing situations, and looks like a solid scat back. He will also be huge on the return team, and has shown he could be a solid gunner on punt coverage. The disappointment will come from the secondary. Roby will never be able to live up to Aqib Talib, and so he will be the biggest disappointment. That’s not fair to him, but that’s the natural progression of things.Joe R: I think Shaq Barrett is going to blow people away this year, just in time to earn a fat paycheck somewhere else. Outside of the secondary, I think Garett Bolles will disappoint. Everyone’s flying high on the performance of the line so far, but he’ll still be average. Decent at times, woeful at others.Pete: Two players breakout this season, and both are on offense. I think Sutton and $wag Chad Kelly breakout this year. Demaryius Thomas will get hurt http://www.denverbroncosteamonline.com/bradley-roby-jersey , he just will, and the same likely goes with Case Keenum. When Demaryius Thomas goes down (he has the last 2 years in week 1) Sutton will fill in and never really go back. I’ve said it to many eyerolls, but Sutton has Randy Moss skills, just not quite as blindingly fast. Once he’s in, he’s never going back. As for Kelly, this is the “likelihood” that our QB gets hurt like they have the last two straight years. If (and I hope he doesn’t) but if Keenum goes down, I think Kelly goes in the game and plays really good. I’m not sure if he lights it up, but I think he plays really good and opens eyes to ignite the “Is he our future franchise QB?” talk. Ian St: Let’s have some fun with this, so I’ll go with Case Keenum as the breakout player. Just about every analyst and outlet thinks Keenum’s 2017 season with the Vikings was a fluke and he’ll return to Earth — meaning the seasons prior to that one. I say he not only matches what he did in Minnesota, but he’s even a little bit better. I don’t think this player will disappoint, per se, but Bradley Roby will have the spotlight on him big time this season. Any mistake will get amplified by the fanbase and used as the evidence Denver shouldn’t have traded Talib. Can he live up to those expectations?Laurie: I think Royce Freeman has already “broken out,” so I’m going to take a flyer on Adam Jones. At 35 and not playing great for the past two years, not many think he can go back to 2014-15 greatness. And I don’t either. But I do think he’ll be surprisingly good for us as the third corner this season. I think Booker is going to be the disappointment. For whatever reason, Vance Joseph cannot take control of moving guys around on the depth chart like he needs to, and so I imagine Booker will get more touches than he deserves and will therefore show again and again that he can’t run more than three yards at a time.
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